As Canadians head to the polls today, the 2025 federal election has been dramatically shaped by external pressures, notably threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. The contest, initially predicted to result in a sweeping victory for the Conservatives, has been upended by a strong Liberal resurgence under new leadership.
The stakes are unusually high. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took over from Justin Trudeau just six weeks ago, has centered his campaign around defending Canada’s sovereignty amid aggressive rhetoric from Washington. Trump’s threats, including remarks about “absorbing” Canada and imposing punitive tariffs, have stirred nationalistic fervor across the country, impacting voter sentiments significantly.
In January, Trudeau’s resignation announcement left the Liberal Party in disarray, trailing the Conservatives by more than 20 percentage points. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre appeared poised to become Canada’s next prime minister. However, the Liberals’ unexpected leadership switch and Carney’s strategic focus on Trump’s threats have dramatically shifted the political landscape.
During the campaign, Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, emphasized his economic and crisis management experience. Speaking at a rally on Friday, Carney stated, “Unlike Pierre Poilievre, I’ve managed budgets before. I’ve managed economies before. I’ve managed crises before. This is a time for experience, not experiments.”
The Liberals’ messaging appears to have resonated. Outraged by Trump’s comments, Canadians have canceled trips to the United States, booed the American national anthem at sports events, and rallied behind Carney’s promise to defend Canadian sovereignty. A CBC poll aggregator indicates the Liberals hold a slight lead, with 42 percent support compared to the Conservatives’ 38 percent as of Friday.
Meanwhile, Poilievre has attempted to refocus attention on domestic issues, notably rising living costs and dissatisfaction from Trudeau’s decade in office. “The trajectory we are on after this lost Liberal decade, were it to continue, would lead to more despair,” Poilievre warned during a final campaign event. However, analysts suggest his aggressive style and bombastic rhetoric may have alienated moderate voters, especially women.
Adding to the election’s unpredictability is the decline in support for smaller parties like the New Democrats and the Quebec-based Bloc Quebecois. This trend could allow the Liberals to dominate key battlegrounds, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, which are crucial for forming a majority government.
A record-breaking 7.3 million Canadians, representing 25% more than in 2021, participated in early voting during the Easter weekend. Many voters cited fears over Trump’s influence as a major motivator.
Montreal resident Nathalie Tremblay captured the national mood, saying, “This election feels more important than any I’ve ever voted in. We need a strong government that can stand up to what’s happening in the United States.”
Still, there remains a significant portion of the electorate wary of continued Liberal rule. Entrepreneur Simon-Pierre Lepine voiced his concerns: “The Liberals have plunged us into a financial hole. The Conservatives have traditionally done much better with the economy.”
Political experts note that the Conservatives’ original strategy — focusing on economic affordability — has largely been overshadowed by the foreign policy crisis sparked by Trump. McGill University political scientist Daniel Beland observed, “The Conservatives struggled to change the subject of the campaign away from Trump.”
Tim Powers, a prominent political analyst, described it as “a strange campaign full of surprises,” noting that Poilievre had prepared to run against a weakened Trudeau, not a reinvigorated Liberal party under Carney.
With polls closing tonight, results are expected within hours. Analysts caution that while the Liberals appear favored, the tightening race leaves room for surprises in what has become one of Canada’s most consequential elections in recent history.