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The global aviation industry is poised for a stronger financial performance in 2025, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting a net profit of $36 billion for airlines worldwide — an increase from $32.4 billion recorded in 2024. This signals continued post-pandemic recovery despite ongoing market uncertainties, according to IATA’s 2025 Airline Industry Financial Outlook released on Tuesday.
According to the report signed by IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, the global airline industry is expected to achieve a 3.7% net profit margin in 2025, up from 3.4% in 2024 and slightly higher than the previously forecast 3.6%. While still below the broader corporate sector’s average profitability, this rise marks a meaningful step forward for an industry that was devastated by COVID-19 disruptions just a few years ago.
A key factor driving the positive outlook is a significant 13% drop in jet fuel prices compared to 2024. Walsh noted that this development has improved airlines’ cost structures even amid pressures from global trade tensions and waning consumer confidence in some markets.
“Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024,” Walsh stated. “That’s a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify.”
Total airline revenues are forecast to hit $979 billion in 2025 — a modest 1.3% increase from 2024 figures, though slightly below IATA’s earlier $1 trillion projection. Operating profits are also expected to rise to $66 billion, up from $61.9 billion in 2024. However, return on invested capital remains modest at 6.7%, up just a notch from 6.6% last year.
Despite the impressive aggregate numbers, IATA emphasized that profit margins per passenger remain narrow. Walsh explained that the $36 billion profit translates to a mere $7.20 per passenger segment — highlighting how fragile the industry’s profitability still is.
“It’s still a thin buffer, and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charges, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test,” he warned.
IATA called on global policymakers to take into account the vital role airlines play in the global economy. With air transport supporting 86.5 million jobs and contributing 3.9% to global GDP, Walsh said it is essential that governments avoid imposing policies that could erode the slim gains being made.
“Aviation remains a cornerstone of global connectivity, trade, and tourism,” he said. “Policymakers who rely on airlines as the core of a value chain must keep this clearly in focus.”
While the outlook is positive, experts caution that the industry remains vulnerable. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate-related policy shifts, and potential regulatory burdens could upend the fragile momentum. Rising interest rates in key markets could also dampen passenger demand in the latter part of the year.
However, analysts say that the industry’s ability to recover steadily since the pandemic — coupled with structural changes in fleet efficiency, route optimization, and digital operations — offers hope that airlines can navigate these headwinds.
Although IATA’s report focuses globally, African airlines — including Nigerian carriers — stand to benefit from increased intercontinental travel demand and ongoing liberalization under the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM). However, regional constraints such as currency volatility, infrastructural deficits, and high taxation remain significant barriers to full profitability on the continent.
Industry observers say African governments must urgently address operational inefficiencies and provide an enabling regulatory environment to allow local carriers to tap into the global recovery momentum.
With international traffic steadily growing, particularly across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, the global aviation industry appears set to soar higher in 2025. Yet the journey toward sustainable, long-term profitability will require cautious optimism, strategic investment, and supportive global aviation policies.