The Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia‘s strategic aircraft fleet have sparked heated debates among pro-Kremlin pundits, with some calling for nuclear retaliation. The Kremlin remains tight-lipped, awaiting the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which targeted air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border.
Prominent Russian bloggers, such as “Two Majors,” are vehemently demanding action, stating, “This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine.” They further taunt, “After the mushroom cloud, you can think about who lied, made mistakes, and so on.” However, not all Russian voices are in agreement. Analyst Sergei Markov cautions against nuclear use, warning it would “lead to real political isolation”. Meanwhile, blogger Alexander Kots advocates for a forceful response, urging Russia to “strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences”.
Understanding Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine
Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine outlines conditions for nuclear use, including attacks on “critically important” military infrastructure that disrupts nuclear force response actions. According to Vladimir Putin’s recent decree, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack that poses a critical threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Some experts believe Ukraine’s destruction of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be seen as breaching Moscow’s nuclear threshold, potentially triggering a nuclear response. Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian state TV host, declared the Ukrainian operation “grounds for a nuclear attack”. However, others argue the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains high, and such a strike would likely invite universal scorn and further isolate Russia internationally.
Potential Consequences and Responses
The Kremlin’s likely response to Ukraine’s actions remains uncertain. Former Russian minister Vladimir Milov predicts more “barbaric” conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, stating, “There’s no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive.” Milov adds that while nuclear use is unlikely, “Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge”.
As the conflict continues, Ukraine’s allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on Western-supplied arms use against Russia, challenging Moscow’s perceived red lines. With each side dug in, the potential for miscalculation and escalation remains high. Poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences, making diplomacy and restraint crucial in this volatile situation.