Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is reeling from the ripple effects of a steep traffic hike and the reintroduction of a controversial telecom excise duty, leading to a sharp decline in internet data consumption and a notable drop in subscriber numbers across the country.
According to the latest industry statistics from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), internet data consumption fell by 17,647 terabytes between January and April 2025, representing a 1.76 per cent decline from 1,000,930.60 terabytes in January to 983,283.43 terabytes in April.
The downward trend is directly linked to the 50 per cent tariff hike implemented in February, which raised the average cost of 1GB of data from N287.50 to N431.25. The tariff adjustment was approved by the NCC in response to rising inflation, foreign exchange instability, and increasing energy costs that have squeezed telecom operators’ profit margins.
The steep price adjustment triggered an immediate and dramatic drop in internet data consumption. In February, total data consumption plummeted to 893,054.80 terabytes, down 10.8 per cent from January. While March saw a modest rebound to 995,876.10 terabytes, usage declined again in April, indicating that affordability remains a major barrier to digital access for many Nigerians.
Alongside falling internet usage, the number of active internet subscribers also declined. From 142.16 million users in January, the subscriber base dipped to 141.98 million by April, marking a loss of over 176,000 users within four months. February witnessed the steepest decline, with 911,296 subscribers lost following the tariff hike.
A deeper look into platform-specific data reveals that mobile GSM, which accounts for the bulk of internet access in Nigeria, suffered a minor reduction from 141.65 million in January to 141.47 million in April. However, there was slight growth in fixed broadband subscriptions and VoIP users, suggesting that some consumers are migrating to alternative platforms where possible.
Despite April 2025 data usage showing a 28.2 per cent increase compared to the same month in 2024, the total number of internet users declined sharply year-on-year. In April 2024, Nigeria had 164.55 million internet subscribers. That number dropped to 141.98 million in April 2025 — a significant 13.7 per cent reduction, largely due to SIM disconnections for unlinked National Identification Numbers (NINs) and a regulatory audit of telecom lines.
Adding to consumer woes, the recently approved Nigeria Tax Bill 2024 has reintroduced the previously suspended 5 per cent excise duty on telecommunications services. Signed into law by President Bola Tinubu in May 2025, the bill mandates that both local and international service providers collect and remit the duty, making mobile calls, text messages, and data more expensive for end-users.
Telecom operators, under the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), have expressed grave concerns. Already grappling with over 54 different taxes and levies, operators argue that the excise duty could stifle digital inclusion and slow sector recovery.
Despite the regulatory headwinds, MTN Nigeria posted a robust recovery in Q1 2025, recording a N133.7bn profit after tax — a turnaround from its N392.7bn loss in 2024. The company attributed its gains to higher data demand and the February tariff hike. Notably, MTN’s data revenue surpassed voice revenue for the first time, reaching N529.4bn (a 51.5% YoY increase), while voice revenue stood at N407.4bn.
The company also added about four million smartphones to its network in Q1, increasing smartphone penetration to 60.7 per cent, signaling growing demand for high-speed internet despite affordability issues.
Telecom experts warn that the recent developments may exacerbate Nigeria’s already wide digital divide, particularly among low-income users in rural areas. “We’re witnessing a situation where digital services are becoming a luxury rather than a utility,” said telecom analyst Emmanuel Adepoju. “If the government continues to add financial pressure without offsetting support, we risk reversing the gains made in digital inclusion over the past decade.”
As Nigeria aims to expand its digital economy, stakeholders say regulatory clarity, fiscal relief, and infrastructure investment are crucial. While operators like MTN are seeing short-term gains, the broader industry remains vulnerable to policy shocks, macroeconomic pressures, and consumer pushback.
With the NCC’s next quarterly report expected in July, all eyes will be on whether internet usage and subscriber numbers continue to decline — or if operators and consumers can adapt to yet another cycle of rising telecom costs.