The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the significant military superiority of Israel’s armed forces. Despite being outnumbered, Israel’s sophisticated military, largely supported by the United States, has enabled it to overpower Iran’s larger but less advanced military. Israel claims to have gained control over the skies above Tehran, with its modern US-made fighter jets able to drop guided bombs from short range without significant concern of being shot down.
Israel’s air force has targeted ground-based radar and launchers, significantly degrading Iran’s air defense capabilities. Intelligence operatives from Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, used drones smuggled into Iran to disrupt its remaining air defense systems. Israeli attacks have also eliminated many top-level Iranian commanders, undermining Iran’s response capabilities. According to the Israeli military, a third of Iran’s surface-to-surface launchers have been destroyed.
Despite Israel’s military successes, Iran still poses a significant threat. The country has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, with estimates ranging between 2,000 to 3,000 missiles. While some of these missiles and production facilities have been targeted by Israel, Iran continues to fire waves of missiles into Israel, some of which penetrate its sophisticated air defenses. Justin Bronk, a defense expert at Rusi, notes that while Israel may claim air superiority over Tehran, it has not achieved air dominance, and the threat from short-range missiles remains.
The conflict’s escalation raises concerns about the potential involvement of other countries. Iran’s allies, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have seen their ability to threaten Israel diminished by Israeli actions over the past two years. However, the Houthis in Yemen have demonstrated their capability to fire missiles into Israel and bring down US Reaper drones with short-range ground-to-air missiles. Iran’s ability to strike Western interests in the region and disrupt shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz also poses a significant threat.
Israel’s military campaign is largely dependent on US backing, with billions of dollars in military aid provided annually. While the US has supported Israel’s actions, there are limits to what Israel can achieve. Air power may set back Iran’s nuclear program, but it won’t destroy it. Israeli hopes of toppling the Iranian regime seem highly unlikely, and air campaigns rarely result in clear-cut victories. The US has also not given Israel access to the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000lb bomb that could penetrate Iran’s underground nuclear complex at Fordow.