The relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk has taken a turn for the worse, with Trump treating Musk like an “off the rails” oddity after Musk’s announcement to fund his own “America Party” instead of Trump’s Republican Party.
According to John Kenneth White, a professor emeritus of politics at Catholic University, Musk’s decision to form a new party could potentially inflict significant harm on Trump’s coalition.
White notes that the US system is increasingly top-down, depending on the wealthiest person and the amount of money they have. “If they become dissatisfied, as Musk has clearly become dissatisfied with Trump, then you get this situation where he can say, ‘All right, not only am I going to withhold my money from Republican candidates… but I’m going to form a new party that will respond to be responsive to my interest, punish a party I previously supported, and, at a minimum, influence the outcome of elections to make sure that Republicans lose.'”
White draws parallels with Ross Perot, a wealthy individual who capitalized on dissatisfaction with both parties and emphasized deficit spending and the out-of-control budget.
Perot’s movement fades over time because you have election laws that favor both parties, because they write them. White also mentions Theodore Roosevelt, who was extremely dissatisfied with his handpicked successor, William Howard Taft, and formed the Bull Moose Party.
White believes that the Trump coalition is beginning to fracture, citing historical precedent with Grover Cleveland, who built a coalition that eventually unraveled due to disagreements over tariffs. “You have business that does not want tariffs. It would agree with Musk, at least secretly, that tariffs are a very bad idea for business in a 21st-century global economy. You have a Hispanic population that gravitated to Trump in significant terms that is now showing dissatisfaction with the universal deportations of people without due process.”
Musk’s strategy is to pick a few races and flood them with money, potentially making a difference in key elections. White notes that this is Musk’s only way of succeeding, not by electing candidates but by being the difference-maker in the partisan vote. “Think of Musk as a vacuum cleaner to suck some of the lifeblood out of the Trump Coalition, which is showing signs of weakness.”
White questions whether Musk has a good idea or two that might sustain him in the long term. “Despite the flow of money that he has to make a difference in some key races, can he, in fact, latch on to an idea that has enough popular support that he can build a base underneath what he’s trying to do from the top down?” Musk’s motivating issue is the debt, which is an issue that neither Republicans nor Democrats want to talk seriously about.