Nigeria is positioning itself for a major leap in oil production as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has disclosed plans to push for a 25 per cent increase in its crude oil production quota within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 2027.
The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Bashir Ojulari, confirmed the move, citing improved production capacity, infrastructural upgrades, and significant growth in the country’s refining sector as key drivers for the push.
According to Argus Media, a London-based energy and commodity market intelligence firm, NNPC aims to raise its crude oil production quota from the current 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2 million bpd.
Ojulari disclosed that Nigeria’s current production stands at around 1.4 million bpd, with condensate production contributing an additional 250,000 bpd, bringing total output to approximately 1.65 million bpd.
NNPC has set an ambitious target of achieving a 2.4 million bpd capacity by 2027, with 1.7 million bpd from crude oil and 300,000 bpd from condensates.
“The recent commissioning of the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery and the addition of over 500,000 bpd modular refining capacity at various stages of completion are strong indicators that Nigeria is now better placed to justify a higher OPEC quota,” Ojulari stated.
He stressed that the expanded local refining capacity will reduce reliance on imported refined products, improve domestic demand for crude oil, and ultimately strengthen Nigeria’s case for an increased production quota.
The push for a higher quota comes at a time when OPEC+ is reviewing its members’ maximum sustainable production capacities. Nigeria, which has historically struggled to meet its existing production targets due to operational challenges, oil theft, and ageing infrastructure, is banking on recent improvements to make a strong case for the quota review.
Ojulari expressed optimism about the outcome of the discussions with OPEC, stating:
“We believe that with the increased demand being created in-country, and improved security and infrastructure, we are now in a better position to seek from OPEC a 25 per cent increase in our production quota.”
If approved, the increased production quota could significantly boost Nigeria’s oil revenues and foreign exchange earnings, especially at a time when global oil prices remain volatile. The anticipated increase would also help meet the rising domestic crude demand from refineries, particularly as Nigeria works towards becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Energy analysts note that higher production levels could position Nigeria as a stronger player within OPEC and potentially reduce the financial strain caused by years of underperformance in the oil sector.
While the prospects of a higher quota are encouraging, experts have warned that Nigeria must address lingering issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and the need for sustained investment in upstream oil infrastructure.
However, with ongoing security operations in the Niger Delta and the Federal Government’s renewed commitment to tackling oil theft, stakeholders believe the 2027 production targets are achievable.
Ojulari concluded that NNPC will continue to work closely with OPEC and international partners to ensure Nigeria’s production growth aligns with global market stability and sustainable development goals.